SIPRI warns against bias in the assessment of arms balance and arms control

Apropos of US-Soviet strategic arms talks: analysis is complicated by the fact that in an arms race biased perceptions are inevitable, as they are in any conflict or political problem. That is, the different parties will see the situation in different terms, coloured by fear, by self-justification and by other factors. These biases may be conscious at the stage where people who are interested-politicians, the military, scientists, industrialists and journalists-are composing the arguments and selecting the evidence they will use in the advocacy of a particular policy. But commonly they will be unconscious. They will occur because people select and read into information-or the absence of information-what fits their preconceptions. Those preconceptions will be formed by the interests and values of the group to which the individual belongs. Frequent repetition and lack of contrary views within the group will give those preconceptions a strong hold on people's minds.

In each nation the groups who govern policy are likely, on average, to have a hostile perception of the other nation or nations engaged in an arms race. But within each nation there are likely to be different groups with different views. Thus, to use the popular American terms, the 'hawks' in any nation will tend to attribute aggressive intentions to the other side and will typically exaggerate the number and capabilities of its forces and weapons. They will put an adverse interpretation on a particular weapons decision by the other side, and will argue from this that they should be given more forces and weapons. On the other hand, the 'doves' will attribute relatively peaceful intentions to the other side and will play down the numbers and capabilities of its forces. Both views may be far removed from the truth; and the truth may not lie at the mid-point between them. This is a basic example. Biases will often be more complex.

It is important to try to detect and correct these biases. They are a major obstacle to negotiation and to a realistic assessment of the situation.

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